Rules

OBJECT OF THE GAME

To correctly predict the winner of each Democratic Party caucus or primary in each state and US territory, up to April!

THE RULES

The game is divided into six Sets:

1. Eventual Winner (picks due on or before 1 February 2020)
2. Iowa, New Hampshire (1 Feb) and Nevada, South Carolina (15 Feb)
3. Super Tuesday (29 Feb)
4. Mid-March Primaries (7 March)
5. Late March Primaries (14 March)
6. Early April Primaries (28 March)

  • Each state and US territory is worth a number of points, based on (1) the importance of the contest vs other states and territories in general (2) the importance of the contest vs other states and territories in a given set and (3) the comparative difficulty of predicting that state or territory.
  • I will publish all results, delays, changes, and updates to the game here and on Twitter ( www.twitter.com/edofmund ).
  • I will also periodically publish updates from RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and PredictIt at the Facebook group ( https://www.facebook.com/groups/2404842543178865 ) and on Twitter.
  • A Set is won by winning a greater number of the points available in each Set vs other contestants.
  • Sets also have tie-breaker contests.
  • In the case of a tie (including tying the tie-breaker), all the winning contestants shall be joint winners of that Set.
  • The contest may end early if the Democratic primaries become, in my judgement, uncontested.
  • The contest may be extended if (1) the Democratic primaries remain contested as of 1 April, and (2) there is a general agreement among the frontrunning players to extend the contest.
  • A full list of the states to pick on each date, the dates of the caucuses and primaries, and the points for each state, will be published this weekend.
  • Picks must be filed by 7 PM Eastern US Time / Midnight GMT on the published deadline date for each Set. This date will always be a Saturday. You can use this website, or you can message me your picks via Facebook Messenger if you’re friends with me on Facebook.
  • You may not give me picks by word-of-mouth, text message, or any other method.
  • Your picks will not be revealed by me to any other player (but you are welcome to share them yourself).
  • In the case of the game ending in a tie in sets, the game shall be won by (1) The contestant who has won Set 1, or (if this is also tied) (2) The contestant who has the greatest number of points overall (head-to-head between/among those tied in sets and winning Set 1).
  • You may submit picks from a pool or team, provided this pool or team is arranged prior to the initial picks being made, and the same individual remains responsible for delivering your picks throughout the contest.
  • You may, and are encouraged to, take advice and do some research!
  • I myself will make picks and publish them, but I will be ineligible to win sets or claim prizes.

ODD BITS

  • *NEW* In the case of a contested or brokered convention, the Overall Nominee shall be whoever is selected as the nominee, regardless of who has the greatest plurality of delegates.
  • States and territories which change the date or process of their selection may be removed from a set and allocated to a different set, have their quantity of points changed, and/or removed from the game entirely, at my discretion.
  • For states or territories which hold a caucus prior to a primary, the caucus will take precedence.
  • In the case of one candidate winning a plurality of the popular vote and a different candidate winning a plurality of delegates from a state or territory, the popular vote count shall take precedence, UNLESS the “winner” of the state is generally acknowledged in respected media sources to be the winner of delegates; e.g. where the popular vote is not declared.
  • When necessary, the Associated Press predicted result will be treated as the result prior to an official result being declared.
  • In the case of no result being declared by the AP or by the state or territory’s relevant authority, I may make a call as to the winner of that state of territory if there is general consensus in other respected media sources.
  • Where the above is insufficient, or when there is any other delay to the result in a state or territory, the points for that state or territory and the winner of the relevant Set may remain undeclared until the result is apparent.
  • Any of the above may be changed at my discretion. I can be bribed with tea, chocolate, and logic.